@Article{MedeirosCaBrSoReMo:2011:InDiPe,
               author = "Medeiros, Liliam Cesar de Castro and Castilho, C{\'e}sar Augusto 
                         Rodrigues and Braga, Cynthia and de Souza, Wayner Vieira and 
                         Regis, Leda and Monteiro, Antonio Miguel Vieira",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and Univ Fed 
                         Pernambuco, Dept Matemat, Recife, PE, Brazil and Ctr Pesquisa 
                         Aggeu Magalhaes, Dept Parasitol, Recife, PE, Brazil and Ctr 
                         Pesquisa Aggeu Magalhaes, Dept Saude Coletiva, Recife, PE, Brazil 
                         and Ctr Pesquisa Aggeu Magalhaes, Dept Entomol, Recife, PE, Brazil 
                         and Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Div Processamento Imagens, 
                         BR-12201 Sao Jose Dos Campos, Brazil",
                title = "Modeling the Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Fever: Investigating 
                         Disease Persistence",
              journal = "Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases",
                 year = "2011",
               volume = "5",
               number = "1",
                pages = "e942",
                month = "Jan",
             keywords = "AEDES-AEGYPTI DIPTERA, RIO-DE-JANEIRO, VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES, 
                         SCALE-FREE NETWORK, CELLULAR-AUTOMATA, INFECTIOUS-DISEASE, 
                         SURVIVAL RATES, CULICIDAE, EPIDEMICS, VIRUS.",
             abstract = "Background: Dengue is a disease of great complexity, due to 
                         interactions between humans, mosquitoes and various virus 
                         serotypes as well as efficient vector survival strategies. Thus, 
                         understanding the factors influencing the persistence of the 
                         disease has been a challenge for scientists and policy makers. The 
                         aim of this study is to investigate the influence of various 
                         factors related to humans and vectors in the maintenance of viral 
                         transmission during extended periods. Methodology/Principal 
                         Findings: We developed a stochastic cellular automata model to 
                         simulate the spread of dengue fever in a dense community. Each 
                         cell can correspond to a built area, and human and mosquito 
                         populations are individually monitored during the simulations. 
                         Human mobility and renewal, as well as vector infestation, are 
                         taken into consideration. To investigate the factors influencing 
                         the maintenance of viral circulation, two sets of simulations were 
                         performed: (1(st)) varying human renewal rates and human 
                         population sizes and (2(nd)) varying the house index (fraction of 
                         infested buildings) and vector per human ratio. We found that 
                         viral transmission is inhibited with the combination of small 
                         human populations with low renewal rates. It is also shown that 
                         maintenance of viral circulation for extended periods is possible 
                         at low values of house index. Based on the results of the model 
                         and on a study conducted in the city of Recife, Brazil, which 
                         associates vector infestation with Aedes aegytpi egg counts, we 
                         question the current methodology used in calculating the house 
                         index, based on larval survey. Conclusions/Significance: This 
                         study contributed to a better understanding of the dynamics of 
                         dengue subsistence. Using basic concepts of metapopulations, we 
                         concluded that low infestation rates in a few neighborhoods ensure 
                         the persistence of dengue in large cities and suggested that 
                         better strategies should be implemented to obtain measures of 
                         house index values, in order to improve the dengue monitoring and 
                         control system.",
                  doi = "10.1371/journal.pntd.0000942",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000942",
                 issn = "1935-2727",
                label = "lattes: 6937937220569796 1 MedeirosCaBrSoReMo:2011:InDiPe",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "info doi_10.1371_journal.pntd.0000942.htm",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}